2012 the Foreign Exchange investment market will be the biggest year of uncertainty, it seems almost certain that the U.S. dollar against euro, gold substantial shock - before or after the rise.
the Christmas period, the majority of the foreign exchange market market is dull, but dull bit of a surprise like this year. Debt crisis in Europe after the EU summit, the euro remained stable, giving the debt crisis in Europe has been the illusion of stability. As everyone knows, the European Central Bank to pay the cost of how many.
around Christmas, the European Central Bank on the one hand of the market stress, the bank will not aggressively buying European bonds, European Central Bank will not be declared But the week before Christmas, the European Central Bank under the EU summit resolutions in the first round three-year long-term refinancing operations (LTRO), a total of 489.191 billion euros to release the funds, equivalent to RMB so, far more than expected. Market that speak louder than words, but the European Central Bank
Logically, such a huge money should help the euro to achieve a big rebound, one stroke out of the euro at $ 1.3000 on the front line of attractive, but the performance of the euro the week before Christmas is just bounce around 200 basis points. 24, the euro fell to 1.3050 bottom again, and this is precisely the position of the euro The fact that many analysts predicted that crushed the euro above 1.3500 can not afford to touch on, but the first time to the market rallies to lighten up more opportunities.
euros and then a big positive is difficult to understand the market,UGG Boots Clearance Sale, only a reverse stimulus, indicating a negative trend of economic fundamentals. In the economic downturn, debt expansion in the context of the European Central Bank more Maili Qi save euros, indicating that the larger issue of the euro.
European Central Bank against their promises, had to As for the adjustment of the number, you never know, but the 1.2000 point that the market can accept. If handled properly,UGG Clearance, could evolve into the European debt crisis economic and financial crisis, the euro is likely to fall below parity (one to one U.S. dollar).
from the current operation of the European Central Bank target of view, it aimed to maintain the strong euro is not the goal, but to avoid the evolution of the debt crisis for the financial crisis, leading to depletion of the banking liquidity crisis. According to economic theory, any printing money to countries and regions, are determined to sacrifice the stability of the currency, and in order to avoid the worse to happen, the European Central Bank has recognized the need to sacrifice stability of the currency.
from technical analysis, the euro fell below 1.3000 once again fell in line is likely to accelerate, down to 1.2860 the following in one fell swoop. Judgments based on the fundamentals, the euro fell below 1.3000 integer bits is likely to have major news side, with, with big changes in fundamentals, the euro will appear really down. I expected, the message or the sovereign debt was downgraded from France, Germany, be warned. The reason why the ECB decided to printing money, diluting the purchasing power of the euro, is to a large extent,UGG Boots Clearance, France and Germany questioned the credibility of liquidity prepared in advance.
the European Central Bank began to It should be said, the Fed QE2 operator has obtained great success, and then continue the quantitative easing has little significance.
is worth noting that the U.S. economic data is getting better performance during the Christmas season, not only a significant decline in the number of applications for unemployment benefits, but also a substantial increase in manufacturing orders, shows that the U.S. economic recovery has been clear. At this time, the Fed should not have unexpected move, the possibility of continuing a very small amount of width.
the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve have had in 2008 after the release of a huge market liquidity, but we are more concerned about the Fed. Because the Fed is buying bonds directly, while the European Central Bank is providing the market with ultra-long-term, low interest rates, unlimited loans, commercial banks want to buy bonds. These two operations, though they are free mobility, but very different.
Fed QE after the introduction of two, succeeded in attracting the world's central banks and investors to participate in the U.S. bond market. Even today, the U.S. debt level of income was still lower than normal years, although the release of the European Central Bank liquidity is that of the Fed, but so far the euro area banking sector is not interested in buying European debt.
the European Central Bank data show that, LTRO the next day, within the mechanism of the European Central Bank deposits, total deposits of 265 billion euros the previous day jumped to 347 billion euros of the record, but the number of European debt purchase is small. This shows that the European Central Bank to encourage commercial banks to buy European debt initiatives do not bear fruit.
contrast, quantitative easing measures the ECB in effect the market in general has been questioned, that it does not solve the debt crisis. Capital market's view of the European Central Bank is consistent, that the ECB first need to improve their financial situation, to accept the maintenance of the general demand for loans before considering to buy European bonds slightly better state. As for the possible exposure of the five-nation euro zone government bonds, or buy less as well.