Xinhua Beijing on July 1 (Reporter Zhang Xudong Wang Ling Yue Ruifang excellent) in July, the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform will usher in the third anniversary of the. inventory of nearly three years of the reform process, the first half of 2008 the RMB exchange rate is the most interesting, most complex factors, the parties most elite point of view scene for some time.
Appreciation from the beginning to the accelerated pace of slowdown in March and April, to return to the recent rapid appreciation of the channel, the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. currency out of the six unexpected
According to China Foreign Exchange Trade Center statistics, June 27, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar as 1:6.861, compared with last year has risen more than 6%, with a considerable level of appreciation of the whole year last year. Since July 21, 2005 launch of RMB exchange rate reform mechanism, the RMB against the U.S. dollar continued to maintain a slight appreciation trend in 2006, the RMB against the U.S. dollar appreciated by about 3.3%.
Into 2008, significantly accelerate the appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar, less than 100 days from the beginning of the RMB exchange rate have exceeded 7.2,7.1 mark, the appreciation rate of about 3% on April 10 broke through 7 of the integer mark, enter the RMB exchange rate Since then, the appreciation has slowed and many repeated until into June. June 2, from the beginning, the rapid appreciation of the RMB back channel.

Many analysts here believe that, in addition to flexibility and volatility, the initiative became the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate of the new features this year. China Academy of Social Sciences Institute of World Politics and Economics Assistant Fan believes that this aspect of the exchange rate from the central bank's role in the monetary system of the new understanding, which to some extent, can inhibit the domestic inflationary pressures, and the other On the one hand the impact on exports due to currency re-evaluation.
to 60% of the cost of raw materials, 20% of labor costs, exchange rate is not the main aspects. For this reason, the domestic industry's response to the RMB appreciation and tolerance began to increase and accelerate the appreciation of the renminbi become a major round of consideration.
However, it is worth noting that the current round of pressure on the yuan's appreciation against the U.S. dollar continues to come from the outside world. U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the Fed because of concerns about the credit crunch and recession a lot of liquidity into the market and substantially lower interest rates, leading to the U.S. dollar against major global currencies depreciated, thereby increasing the pressure of RMB appreciation passive. In fact, in the past six months, the RMB exchange rate against the euro is not particularly significant.
Inherent in the world, the U.S. dollar's influence, to accelerate the appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar, the foreign trade business, industrial restructuring have brought profound changes.
predicted the yuan will rise almost with HK, but the exchange rate has far exceeded expectations.
In fact, since last year, the Pearl River Delta, Shandong Peninsula and some foreign trade enterprises, especially labor-intensive textile and clothing enterprises have closed down, or transfer out. behind this phenomenon, the RMB appreciation compression to speed up corporate profits is considered to be one of the major reasons. to 2005 calculate the exchange rate before the reform, the RMB against the U.S. dollar has appreciated more than 20%.
In many export enterprises are facing unprecedented central bank survey, after the reform, foreign trade enterprises along the coast to promote upgrading of products through active, to some extent,faux fur throws, to digest the pressure of RMB appreciation, most of the foreign trade enterprises to adjust the RMB exchange rate changes and the ability to withstand significantly higher than expected.
Future for the future exchange rate movements, most scholars believe that the interview, although the RMB appreciation against the U.S. dollar continue to maintain the overall trend, but in the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and decline in external demand and domestic economic environment, changes in the context of RMB appreciation
Based on gradual reform of RMB exchange rate, the principle of stability and controllability judgments, Peng Xing Yun said, can not continue to accelerate the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate down,custom promo products, and as the cumulative effect of cost, speed up the downward trend in exports will reduce the continued appreciation of the possibilities.
Is worth noting that rapid appreciation will also increase the risk of market reversal. Ministry of Commerce, International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute researcher Mei Xinyu,promotional caps, a reminder that, although the current account surplus and capital projects to maintain double, also continued inflow of foreign capital. pressure on the RMB exchange rate reversal also in rapid accumulation of Vietnam's economic crisis and the risk of transmission, Federal Reserve Chairman declared the policy rate cut cycle has a dramatic increase this pressure reversal of capital flows, and thus also lead to reversal of the RMB exchange rate the risk.
changes.